Salje, Henrik Cauchemez, Simon Alera, Maria Theresa Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel Thaisomboonsuk, Butsaya Srikiatkhachorn, Anon Lago, Catherine B. Villa, Daisy Klungthong, Chonticha Tac-An, Ilya A. Fernandez, Stefan Velasco, John Mark Roque, Vito G., Jr Nisalak, Ananda Macareo, Louis R. Levy, Jens W. Cummings, Derek Yoon, In-Kyu text monographic eng

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Proper understanding of the long-term epidemiology of chikungunya has been hampered by poor surveillance. Outbreak years are unpredictable and cases often misdiagnosed. Here we analyzed age-specific data from 2 serological studies (from 1973 and 2012) in Cebu, Philippines, to reconstruct both the annual probability of infection and population-level immunity over a 60-year period (1952-2012). We also explored whether seroconversions during 2012-2013 were spatially clustered. Our models identified 4 discrete outbreaks separated by an average delay of 17 years. On average, 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%-37%) of the susceptible population was infected per outbreak, with >50% of the entire population remaining susceptible at any point. Participants who seroconverted during 2012-2013 were clustered at distances of <230 m, suggesting focal transmission. Large-scale outbreaks of chikungunya did not result in sustained multiyear transmission. Nevertheless, we estimate that >350 000 infections were missed by surveillance systems. Serological studies could supplement surveillance to provide important insights on pathogen circulation. Henrik Salje [and seventeen others] In: The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2016 Vol. 213 (4) page 604-10. Chikungunya Fever epidemiology Chikungunya Fever history Chikungunya Fever transmission Disease Transmission, Infectious Serological Study https://watermark.silverchair.com/jiv470.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAqAwggKcBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKNMIICiQIBADCCAoIGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMCFG-5xE2JVU14ufpAgEQgIICU2q0rPx0uLiM0Fs_yjAp7PAEuNAnQlOYVR9COgYE3fB6cYFNCfhOd53_JLIb-CcBZdVdkX4Fj-o1lC4IF6zNQQj9RJUwAz21SZ2RRH0LlF9TYXjRqWFi4JOBL6vAg72eTF7iielMENTImwR1Q6mOUZhhNIaauXJjs44Py4jkuT4hMfYRHQFTdsLcJHykwtXLi3mi1WHBDMP9ZusOpdJXrzYonJiwkPOlElkboc1pKNc4HPILrp6Uu5RBOSz68TiPd4ypvGw5TNVzd7wPSwpB0iHtQoelfNrj4ceH9ulh_AwgtFUi3oiNaCHQKc5dSRiyHRWeEZUpcxIZ8L473aEzbcLSfprc3EpsoSXOOOnzip-TcSQ4QGqCTd3LmMlaPBozXKl9VC3spVi8_yhPm1pn-liSkVfzLL7ox6X_JiXWpzAFAyAFQRVyiuU129S0-V15QeOEwxZ9cptt-safZaWlBIHaTmuo6BSPB6dD72V0JYwB9FCeaXFLaM-I3XPSB5_MI7U6T-oGxb1w4wEDhLvrYF0YttMgZM0dUsmTGK3FFuCMrA8rgFlHUPpjvsmnwuRxNwbTjHhP-53dKOPN5wbE44ylHRBkeN7LIOmI1M8QKyD797sw-EuHbKJeTeZfshswbXsVzJMXP_jGTYMUblcZuLmjMENybImkHR8lGFJpQa-LUL07S4EY_dQTXueXXvjYV-vaShh3l0qdu32AaIQZ--xieSXYHEVxx_ktQ1e8xX1cQcgAEtUa9vwAMiKB77F82k7T-OwphBsX2pHC1mez-KYB4SY https://watermark.silverchair.com/jiv470.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAqAwggKcBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKNMIICiQIBADCCAoIGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMCFG-5xE2JVU14ufpAgEQgIICU2q0rPx0uLiM0Fs_yjAp7PAEuNAnQlOYVR9COgYE3fB6cYFNCfhOd53_JLIb-CcBZdVdkX4Fj-o1lC4IF6zNQQj9RJUwAz21SZ2RRH0LlF9TYXjRqWFi4JOBL6vAg72eTF7iielMENTImwR1Q6mOUZhhNIaauXJjs44Py4jkuT4hMfYRHQFTdsLcJHykwtXLi3mi1WHBDMP9ZusOpdJXrzYonJiwkPOlElkboc1pKNc4HPILrp6Uu5RBOSz68TiPd4ypvGw5TNVzd7wPSwpB0iHtQoelfNrj4ceH9ulh_AwgtFUi3oiNaCHQKc5dSRiyHRWeEZUpcxIZ8L473aEzbcLSfprc3EpsoSXOOOnzip-TcSQ4QGqCTd3LmMlaPBozXKl9VC3spVi8_yhPm1pn-liSkVfzLL7ox6X_JiXWpzAFAyAFQRVyiuU129S0-V15QeOEwxZ9cptt-safZaWlBIHaTmuo6BSPB6dD72V0JYwB9FCeaXFLaM-I3XPSB5_MI7U6T-oGxb1w4wEDhLvrYF0YttMgZM0dUsmTGK3FFuCMrA8rgFlHUPpjvsmnwuRxNwbTjHhP-53dKOPN5wbE44ylHRBkeN7LIOmI1M8QKyD797sw-EuHbKJeTeZfshswbXsVzJMXP_jGTYMUblcZuLmjMENybImkHR8lGFJpQa-LUL07S4EY_dQTXueXXvjYV-vaShh3l0qdu32AaIQZ--xieSXYHEVxx_ktQ1e8xX1cQcgAEtUa9vwAMiKB77F82k7T-OwphBsX2pHC1mez-KYB4SY 201029 20201029125852.0