02353nam a22004217a 4500 D0001C000065 DOH 20201123131425.0 201123b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak / Matteo Chinazzi [and sixteen others] Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community. In: Science. 2020 Vol.368 (6489) pages:395-400. doi: 10.1126/science.aba9757. Epub 2020 Mar 6. Betacoronavirus Communicable Diseases, Imported epidemiology Communicable Diseases, Imported prevention and control Coronavirus Infections prevention and control Disease Outbreaks Quarantine Travel Chinazzi, Matteo Davis, Jessica T Ajelli, Marco Gioannini, Corrado Litvinova, Maria Merler, Stefano Piontti, Ana Pastore Y Mu, Kunpeng Rossi, Luca Sun, Kaiyuan Viboud, Cécile Xiong, Xinyue Yu, Hongjie Halloran, M Elizabeth Longini, Ira M. Jr. Vespignani, Alessandro https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/368/6489/395.full.pdf CV 1801 1801 0 0 0 0 DOHCL DOHCL ElectronicRes 2020-11-23 0 COVID-19-000065 D0001C000065 2020-11-23 00:00:00 2020-11-23 CV