000			01624nam a22002177a 4500
005			20200922163044.0
008			200922b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
245			_aThe Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies / _cEllen Brooks-Pollock [and five others]
520	3		_aBackground Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. Methods We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the Basic Reproduction Number when groups are prevented. Findings We estimate that PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 2.2% (95%CI 1.1%, 3.6%); the PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 6.4% (5.0%, 8.0%); the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 11.3% (9.9%, 13.0%) Interpretation Large groups of individuals have a small epidemiological impact; small and medium sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic.
650			_aCoronavirus
653			_aCOVID-19
653			_aPopulation Attributable Fraction
700	1		_a Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
700	1		_aRead, Jonathan M.
700	1		_aHouse, Thomas
700	1		_aMedley, Graham
700	1		_aKeeling, Matt J.
700	1		_aDanon, Leon
856			_uhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039537v1
942			_cCV
999			_c1322 _d1322