Application of a risk analysis tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Saudi Arabia / (Record no. 1798)

MARC details
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control field DOH
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control field 20201123125451.0
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Title Application of a risk analysis tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Saudi Arabia /
Statement of responsibility, etc. Xin Chen [and two others]
520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. The Grunow–Finke assessment tool (GFT) is an accepted scoring system for determining likelihood of an outbreak being unnatural in origin. Considering its high specificity but low sensitivity, a modified Grunow–Finke tool (mGFT) has been developed with improved sensitivity. The mGFT has been validated against some past disease outbreaks, but it has not been applied to ongoing outbreaks. This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The publicly available data on human cases of MERS‐CoV infections reported in Saudi Arabia (2012–2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization, Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks investigations. The risk assessment of MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed using the original GFT and mGFT criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring points for each criterion were determined by three researchers to minimize the subjectivity. The results showed 40 points of total possible 54 points using the original GFT (likelihood: 74%), and 40 points of a total possible 60 points (likelihood: 67%) using the mGFT, both tools indicating a high likelihood that human MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia is unnatural in origin. The findings simply flag unusual patterns in this outbreak, but do not prove unnatural etiology. Proof of bioattacks can only be obtained by law enforcement and intelligence agencies. This study demonstrated the value and flexibility of the mGFT in assessing and predicting the risk for an ongoing outbreak with simple criteria.
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Linking entry complexity note In: Risk Analysis 2020 vol. 40 (5) pages: 915-925
650 #2 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Coronavirus Infections
General subdivision transmission
650 #2 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
650 #2 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Disease Outbreaks
650 #2 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Risk Assessment
General subdivision methods
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Personal name Chen, Xin
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Personal name Chughtai, Abrar A.
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Personal name MacIntyre, Chandini R.
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Uniform Resource Identifier <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/risa.13472">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/risa.13472</a>
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Koha item type COVID 19 Resource
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-- 1798
-- 1798
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Damaged status Not for loan Home library Current library Shelving location Date acquired Total Checkouts Full call number Barcode Date last seen Price effective from Koha item type
        DOH Central Library DOH Central Library Electronic Resource Section 11/23/2020   COVID-19-000064 D0001C000064 11/23/2020 11/23/2020 COVID 19 Resource